SPECIAL MARKET BRIEFING: Attempted Assassination and Asset Prices

July 15, 2024
By: 
Dave LaPuma, CFP®

We wanted to address the recent events that transpired on Saturday involving the attempted assassination of former President Trump. This shocking incident has undoubtedly caused concern and uncertainty.

First, our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone and their families that were affected by Saturday evening's senseless tragedy.

By now everyone has likely seen the footage of the attempted assassination of Donald Trump from this weekend. It was surreal to see the footage spread at warp speed around the internet within minutes of the bullets being fired.

This incident serves as a prime example of the hyper-connected, digital world we inhabit today. Information travels faster than ever before, shaping our perceptions and reactions almost instantaneously.

According to Vanda Research, “Over the last 24hrs Trump's odds of winning have seen the biggest 1-day increase since he announced he was running in 2016 . . . In fact, his odds of winning have never been higher at any point in the last 3 election races.”

In the blink of an eye, events unfold not just before those present but before the eyes of the entire globe. This connectivity has profound implications, reshaping how we experience and understand significant moments.

Saturday night's events feel like a turning point in our country.

Many Americans saw the violence for what it was — an unacceptable action that must be vehemently denounced by everyone, regardless of political party or opinion. Politics have become a wasteland of extremism and a complete lack of common sense. The civility of it has disappeared.

As a country, we are better than that. United we stand, divided we fall.

When I was in elementary school, we had to stand up and recite the Pledge of Allegiance every morning.

"I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America and to the Republic for which it stands, one Nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all."

One nation. Indivisible. Liberty and justice for all.

That is what the United States of America is all about. And there is no country in the world that is better at living up to those ideals than America. So, hopefully, we will begin the journey back towards decency, civility, and bipartisanship.

With all that said, you come to us for financial markets and assets. It is our job to understand what is happening during moments of uncertainty, so although it feels odd to talk about, here are a few data points worth mentioning.

Historically, political instability and significant events involving national leaders have had varied impacts on financial markets.

For example, following the failed assassination attempt on President Reagan in 1981, the S&P 500 experienced a short-term decline but recovered and posted gains within a month.

  • 1-day return: -0.87%
  • 2-day return: -0.46%
  • 5-day return: +0.54%
  • 1-month return: +2.01%

Given the current situation, it is crucial to stay informed and maintain a long-term perspective. While the immediate reaction of the markets may be volatile, it is important to remember that markets are resilient and often recover from short-term shocks.

Additionally, the speed at which information spreads today, thanks to digital platforms, means that investors have access to real-time, unfiltered information. This can be both an advantage and a challenge, as it requires us to remain calm and focused amidst the influx of news.

Our team is closely monitoring the developments and analyzing the potential implications for various financial assets. We are committed to making informed decisions to protect and grow your investments.

As always, please feel free to reach out with any questions or concerns.

We appreciate your trust and confidence in our firm during times like these.

Unless otherwise indicated, commentary on this site reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of the author and should not be regarded as a description of services provided by GatePass Capital or its affiliates. The opinions expressed here are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual on any security or advisory service. It is only intended to provide education about the financial industry. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. While all information presented, including from independent sources, is believed to be accurate, we make no representation or warranty as to accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to change any part of these materials without notice and assume no obligation to provide updates. Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice, performance data or a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Investing involves the risk of loss of some or all of an investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Let's Get Started.

The best time to start is now. Personalized financial solutions don’t have to be difficult. We’d love to chat with you to learn more about who you are, what your goals are, and how we can help.

TALK TO AN ADVISOR